The TV and print media love to quote the S&P Case Shiller Index of 20 markets as an objective look at the residential real estate market, which usually paints a very poor picture of the national marketplace - poor in terms of perspective and poor in terms of actually how the total market is doing. What the media do not do is put the results in any type of context which would allow readers or listeners to think about how they should feel about the marketplace. To whit...if Case Shiller says that the national housing prices are down 4.9%, that is from 20 markets, including of course many markets that received "exuberant appreciation levels" (thanks to Alan Greenspan) from 2000 to 2006. Housing prices in San Diego appreciated 173% during that time period, so if they are now down 11% or 15% or even 30%, most people who bought in that time frame are still just fine thank you very much. They don't let you know that, as always, real estate is a local market, and Seattle, Charlotte and until this month Dallas, were still increasing in price (that would ruin the chicken little,l sky-is falling story line that sells papers). However, neither Case Shiller nor the media choose to put their information in a perspective that says - basically - the higher they go, the deeper they fall. Denver, Colorado was only up 29% during that period and is now off about 1.5% in home prices. You gotta look locally - that's where people buy and sell.
Steve Murray of REAL Trends is now receiving data on housing sales and prices directly from national franchise organizations representing more than 35% of all transactions done, and including brands that play in the entry level market as well as the middle and higher end - from every state. A better read on the market? I think so. More later. In the meantime, shut off your TV (particularly 60 minutes who couldn't do a fair story if they tripped over it) and don't read anything in the newspapers having to do with the real estate market.
You can get this blog through TEchnorati as well 
Nice post, we are experiencing the same slanted media news here in Lansing, Michigan. The latest true price differences from 2006 to 2007 were only 7% that I pulled off our MLS. Our local paper uses some far off numbers that have ranged from 18% - 25%. We are not Detroit, here in Central Michigan; however they also use those numbers for headlines on repo numbers. All we can do as Realtors is keep sending out the truth via blogs, newsletters, and letters to the editor, in addition to word of mouth. Thanks for starting a new Blog. "Expect the Best" Mike
Posted by: Mike Bowler Sr. | January 08, 2008 at 04:06 PM
Spot on in my opinion. I grow weary of our market (Louisville Kentucky) being typecast by a much different market in some areas.
BTW-Thanks Anne for launching a blog. Yours and Steve's voices are powerful and welcome ones out here in the real estate world. I, for one, welcome them. Great to have you out here.
BTW-I will point Harrell to your blog. i am sure he would want me to say "hi" for him.
Posted by: Eric Blackwell | January 15, 2008 at 02:27 PM
Thank you for your blog post. I believe the Dallas Morning News a few weeks ago reported that home prices in the DFW area were down a fraction of one percent. Is this worth reporting? Could it just be a margin of error? Seems like they just want to sell more newspapers. We in North Texas never laughed on the way up so we do not have to cry on the way down.
Posted by: David Winans | January 15, 2008 at 03:11 PM